On a simple price/earnings multiple, stocks look cheap. But things aren’t so simple.

The S&P 500 now trades at 15.5 times the past year’s earnings, under generally accepted accounting principles. That compares to an average price/earnings multiple of 17.8 since 1950. By that metric, the stock market is about 15% below where it should be. Load up your boots.

Many stock-market cognoscenti are disdainful of comparing stock prices to the past year’s earnings, however. Profits are highly cyclical: If earnings turn out to be at their peak, stocks can have low P/Es and be overvalued. So taking cues from Yale economist Robert Shiller (who took his from Benjamin Graham and David Dodd), they compare prices to earnings over the past 10 years. Do that, and stocks don’t look cheap at all.

The S&P 500 trades at 22.3 times the past decade’s average, inflation-adjusted annual earnings. That compares to an average level of 18.7 since 1950. So stocks are 19% higher than they should be. Sell.

But while comparing stocks to their past 10 years’ earnings might normally be a fine idea, at the moment it is a bit problematic. The earnings collapse that followed the 2008 financial crisis was the worst in U.S. history. The earnings collapse in the early 2000s following the bursting of the dot-com bubble also affects the numbers. When it happened, it was the worst since the 1930s.

Both earnings collapses were consequences not just of downshifts in the economy but large write-offs associated with the accounting scandals that followed the dot-com bust and the mountain of debt that went bad after the housing bust. They may have had less to with the underlying profitability of companies in the S&P 500 than with those companies past excesses.

Commerce Department data on the after-tax profits of all U.S. companies (derived from Census Bureau surveys, regulatory filings and tax returns) suggest as much. While these profits usually track with S&P 500 earnings, in the late 1990s they grew at a slower clip, and then fell by less in the early 2000s. Put otherwise, they strongly suggested that companies were overstating profits during the dot-com boom, and then kitchen-sinked their problems in the collapse.

In the latter stages of the housing boom, S&P 500 earnings again looked better than what the Commerce Department profit figures show, and after the bust they looked much, much worse.

If earnings for companies in the S&P 500 followed the same contours over the past 10 years as the Commerce Department figures to get to where they are now, what would the 10-year P/E look like? A little math to adjust the profit figures for share-count changes in the S&P 500 and the answer is: 18.9. Basically in line with the 50-year average.

Maybe stocks are right where they should be.

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Stocks were dragged down for their worst one-day loss this year by tumult over the Greek bailout, disappointing readings on the U.S. economy and a downgrade of nearly three dozen Italian banks.

Stocks fell on the open and stayed down, but ended on a brief rally that cut the Dow’s losses under 100 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 89.23 points, or 0.7%, at 12801.23. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index lost 9.31 points, or 0.7%, to 1342.64, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 23.35 points, or 0.8%, to 2903.88.

The losses were the worst day for the stock market since Dec. 28, interrupting a rally that has brought each of the major indexes up about 20% in the last four months. All 10 of the S&P’s sectors were lower, led down by materials and energy. Among blue chips, Alcoa declined 35 cents, or 3.3%, to $10.29 and DuPont dropped 91 cents, or 1.7%, to 51.15.

Euro-zone finance ministers didn’t approve a second bailout that Greece needs to stay afloat, saying the Greek Parliament must first approve the austerity measures before they will sign off on the loan deal. European markets were broadly lower, with the Stoxx Europe 600 closing down 0.9%.

“Greece weighed on the market, but the market needed an excuse,” said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial. “It’s overbought. This was as good as an excuse as one could want.”

The U.S. trade deficit in December was $48.8 billion, slightly wider than the $48.5 billion expected by economists. And the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment survey for February came in at 72.5, weaker than the 75 reading expected by economists.

Asian bourses also were mostly lower, with the Nikkei Stock Average losing 0.6%. China’s Shanghai Composite bucked the trend by rising 0.1% after data showing the country’s trade surplus widened more than expected in January.

Crude-oil prices settled down 1.2%, to $98.67 a barrel, pushed lower after the International Energy Agency cut its 2012 oil-demand forecast citing a weakened economic outlook. Gold futures settled 0.9% lower, at $1,723.30 a troy ounce. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 1.971%. The dollar rose against the euro but fell against the yen.

In corporate news, United Parcel Service said it was boosting its quarterly dividend 9.6%, to 57 cents a share, saying cash flow in 2012 is expected to be strong. The shipping company’s stock rose 12 cents, or 0.2%, to 76.69.

LinkedIn rallied 13.57, or 17.8%, to 89.96, after the company reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and revenue, and provided an upbeat outlook for the current quarter and the year.

True Religion Apparel tumbled 10.13, or 27.6%, to 26.61, after the company missed fourth-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, and provided a 2012 outlook that was below projections.

Activision Blizzard fell 34 cents, or 2.7%, at 12.33, after the games maker reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded expectations, while providing a first-quarter outlook that was below forecasts.

ViewPoint Financial Group rallied 40 cents, or 2.8%, to 14.50, after Standard & Poor’s said the company would replace SonoSite in the S&P SmallCap 600 Index next week. SonoSite is being acquired by Fujifilm Holdings.

NYSE Euronext reported fourth-quarter results that were slightly above estimates, and was upbeat about 2012 despite a challenging near-term outlook for trading volume and currencies. The stock ended the day up 1.25, or 4.5%, at 28.94.

Corrections & Amplifications
An earlier version of this article incorrectly said economist expectations for the U.S. trade deficit in December were $45.5 billion and a 74 reading for the University of Michigan’s February consumer sentiment survey.

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Strong earnings from International Business Machines powered blue-chip stocks higher even as discouraging quarterly reports from other bellwethers kept a lid on broader market gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 68 points, or 0.6%, to 12693, in Friday afternoon trading. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index declined two points, or 0.1%, to 1313, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped three points, or 0.1%, to 2785. Each were poised to finish with a third straight weekly gain.

Blue-chip tech stocks pushed the Dow toward its fourth consecutive gain. IBM rose 4.2% after reporting late Thursday better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and indicated that 2012 earnings would exceed forecasts.

Microsoft advanced 5.2% after the company late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that beat expectations, with revenue essentially in line. The company also lowered its operating expense outlook for 2012.

Intel gained 2.2% after the chip maker late Thursday topped fourth-quarter earnings and revenue forecasts, amid strength in the personal-computer business, and provided a first-quarter revenue outlook that was in line with current estimates.

“My sense is that [corporate earnings reports] so far seem to support that the idea that companies have a greater ability to sustain profits than had been anticipated,” said Jeff Lancaster principal at Bingham, Osborn & Scarborough, which manages more than $2 billion in San Francisco.

Google fell 8.4% and was S&P 500′s biggest laggard after reporting late Thursday fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that fell short of expectations. The average cost that advertisers paid Google per click declined from year-ago levels. Despite Google’s decline, technology stocks on the S&P 500 were one of three sectors in positive territory on Friday.

General Electric recovered from early loses to edge 0.1% higher after the conglomerate’s fourth-quarter earnings topped estimates but revenue came up short, with discontinued operations weighing on results.

American Express fell 2% after the company late Thursday beat earnings estimates but revenue fell short of expectations.

Weakness in the credit-service industry spilled into Capital One Financial. Shares slumped 6.7% after the credit card-issuer-turned bank reported disappointing fourth-quarter earnings late Thursday as loan-loss provisions increased.

SunTrust Banks bolstered the financial sector. Shares rose 5.2% after the regional bank announced fourth-quarter earnings slipped 16%, but that credit costs continued to decline.

European markets slipped but managed to string together a fifth consecutive weekly gain. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.3% and finished with the first decline in five sessions. Talks between Greece and its private creditors over a debt-restructuring plan agreed to in October began, with reports suggesting an agreement with private creditors was close.

Asian bourses were broadly higher, as data showed that manufacturing activity in China contracted in January but at a slightly slower pace than in December. China’s Shanghai Composite climbed 1%, and Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average gained 1.5%.

Gold futures rose 0.6% to $1,664.60 a troy ounce, while crude-oil prices slipped 1.7% to $98.89 a barrel. The dollar gained ground against both the euro and the yen.

Schlumberger climbed 0.8%. Fourth-quarter earnings rose 36% as the oil-field-services company saw revenue jump in North America.

Skyworks Solutions climbed 11% after the semiconductor maker exceeded forecasts for fiscal first-quarter earnings and revenue, and indicated that second-quarter revenue would be above current estimates.

Fifth Third Bancorp slid 4.4% as the regional bank’s fourth-quarter earnings and revenue missed expectations.

Intuitive Surgical reported that fourth-quarter earnings rose 25%, but the surgical-robot maker’s shares dropped 6.7% on concerns about slowing growth in the number of procedures using its surgery machines.

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NEW YORK—U.S. stock futures slipped as concerns over a weakening economy in Europe prompted investors to consolidate some of the market’s recent gains.

About 90 minutes before Wednesday’s opening bell, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edged down 13 points, or 0.1%, to 12377. The Dow rose 70 points, or 0.6%, on Tuesday to close at the highest level seen since July 26.

Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index futures eased 2 points, or 0.2%, to 1284 and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 4 points, or 0.2%, to 2360. Changes in stock futures don’t always accurately predict stock moves after the opening bell.

European markets declined, with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.6%, after the German government’s statistics office said the country’s economy probably contracted by around 0.25% in the fourth quarter.

In addition, data showed that Spanish industrial output dropped 7% in November from a year ago after declining 4.2% in October, suggesting Spain’s economy may have also contracted in the fourth quarter.

Adding to investor jitters, the European Central Bank said its overnight deposit facility reached another record, suggesting euro-zone banks prefer to park cash safely at the ECB than lend to other banks.

Meanwhile, an auction of five-year German government debt attracted very strong demand, with the average yield for that maturity below for 1% for the first time on record.

Asian bourses were mostly higher on the back of U.S. gains, although China’s Shanghai Composite pulled back 0.4% after running up 6.4% over the previous three sessions. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average tacked on 0.3% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.8%.

Gold futures rose 0.5% to $1,639.30 an ounce, while crude oil futures edged 0.4% lower to $101.84 a barrel. The U.S. dollar rose against both the euro and the yen.

There were no major economic releases scheduled; weekly jobless claims and monthly retail sales report are due Thursday.

In corporate news, Hostess Brand, the privately-held maker of Twinkies and Wonder Bread, filed for bankruptcy protection in New York. The company, which employs about 19,000 people and has more than $860 million in debt, has been facing a cash squeeze amid high labor costs and rising prices for sugar and flour.

Elsewhere, Eastman Kodak has filed lawsuits against Apple and Taiwan’s HTC alleging the infringement of patents related to digital imaging technology. The struggling imaging company’s stock jumped 13% in premarket trading but remained below $1 a share. Apple shares edged up 0.1%.

Urban Outfitters dropped 17% after the apparel retailer said its chief executive officer, Glen Senk, has resigned to pursue another opportunity. He will be succeeded as CEO by Richard Hayne, currently the company’s chairman.

Lennar shed 1.7% after the homebuilder reported fourth-quarter earnings that fell shy of estimates, offsetting better-than-expected revenue.

Crocs climbed 5.6% after the company said it expects fourth-quarter revenue to be at the high end of its previously forecasted range of $200 million to $205 million, and full-year revenue to top $1 billion for the first time.

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The market for orange juice futures received another jolt after the federal government said some Brazilian imports contained a potentially harmful fungicide.

The news on Tuesday sent prices of the January contract soaring 9.7% to a record settlement as traders fretted that the appearance of the fungicide could lead to a sharp reduction in Brazilian orange juice imports.

Traders already had driven prices higher this year amid worries that a recent cold snap in Florida had damaged crops. In just six trading days, frozen orange juice concentrate futures have soared 26%, settling at $2.1275 a pound on Tuesday on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange.

“Today’s move is in reaction to fears that supplies are going to be limited as a result,” of the fungicide discovery, said Judy Ganes-Chase, president of J. Ganes Consulting, an independent commodities consulting firm.

If prices remain at these elevated levels, it soon could be reflected in prices on supermarket shelves, analysts said, potentially crimping already flagging demand for the beverage.

In a letter to the industry dated Monday, the Food and Drug Administration said “low levels” of the fungicide carbendazim had been found in juice from the 2011 orange crop from Brazil. The FDA said the fungicide was discovered by a U.S. juice company, which it wouldn’t name, saying it was confidential.

Carbendazim is used in countries such as Brazil to control mold in fruit and other crops, but at high levels can cause cancer, researchers said. The U.S. doesn’t allow its use.

The FDA said the fungicide was found at traces of a few parts per billion, a level that wouldn’t be enough to be harmful to humans, according to James Adaskaveg, a professor of plant pathology at the University of California, Riverside. The agency echoed that assessment.

The FDA said it is running tests on imported juice and will reject any shipments that test positive for the fungicide. The testing will be complete in mid-January, an FDA spokeswoman said.

Brazil accounts for about half of all orange juice products imported into the U.S., making it the second-largest supplier behind Florida.

“Brazil’s industry has always respected all the technical specifications of its buyers,” said a spokesman for the Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters. “The U.S. case is an outlier, and we’re trying to identify what happened and why it happened.”

Michael Smith, president of T&K Futures and Options Inc. in Port St. Lucie, Fla., said news of the fungicide combined with existing supply worries explains Tuesday’s big price move.

The orange juice futures market is volatile, in large part because it is so tiny; it is the smallest agricultural market on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange, with outstanding contracts of less than $1 billion of orange juice.

Big moves at this time of the year are especially common as speculators bet on the likely impact of cold weather on the Florida orange crop. Two years ago, prices shot up 7% on one January day amid concern about crop damage, then plunged 13% the following day after fears eased.

As of last week, hedge funds and other money managers were betting that prices would rise, with more than 50% bullish bets in place as they had three months earlier, and fewer bearish bets, according to government data.

The extent of the damage to the Florida crop, which provides 75% of the country’s orange juice, isn’t known, but traders expect the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday to reduce its estimate for the 2011-12 harvest. If Brazil’s shipments are in question, it could put a further squeeze on juice supplies.

According to Nielsen data published by the Florida Department of Citrus, in the four weeks ending Dec. 24, retail sales of orange juice dropped 8.8% from a year earlier. Meanwhile, prices climbed 7.8%, to $6.12 a gallon.

Further price gains could lead to a greater falloff in demand, hurting some of the biggest producers such as Coca-Cola Co., the maker of Minute Maid, and Tropicana producer PepsiCo Inc.

Coca-Cola and Pepsi together controlled almost two-thirds of the U.S. market in the past year, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. said, citing Nielsen data.

Spokesmen for Coca-Cola and Pepsi declined to comment. Shares of both companies were little changed on Tuesday.

Bernstein analyst Steve Powers said Coca-Cola and Pepsi are known to be conservative when it comes to buying and hedging commodities risk, making them less subject to short-term volatility.

“But if these trends hold and persist, we could see these companies needing to raise prices again,” Mr. Powers said.

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Stocks kicked off the new year with strong gains, as better-than-expected economic data around the globe buoyed investor sentiment on the first U.S. trading day of 2012.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 179.82 points, or 1.5%, to 12397.38, its highest level since July. The blue-chip index registered the third-biggest point gain to start a new year in its history.

All but four of the Dow’s 30 components finished higher. Bank of America, the Dow’s biggest loser in 2011, was among the index’s biggest advancers on Tuesday, closing up 24 cents, or 4.3%, to $5.80. McDonald’s, the biggest blue-chip gainer last year, fell 1.49, or 1.5%, to 98.84.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index climbed 19.46 points, or 1.6%, to 1277.06, led higher by material and financial stocks. The technology-oriented Nasdaq Composite advanced 43.57 points, or 1.7%, to 2648.72.

“There’s a bit of optimism going into the new year, but the major issues—whether they be Europe, China or the debt issues here—are still out there,” said Paul Atkinson, head of North American stocks at Aberdeen Asset Management.

The U.S. manufacturing sector continued to expand in December and did so more than analysts had expected.

“The bar on all these numbers has been set so low, but we’re continuing on a positive trend,” said Chip Cobb, senior vice president at Bryn Mawr Trust Asset Management in Bryn Mawr, Pa. “Whether it’s the manufacturing report, or the housing and employment data over the last several weeks, they’re all heading in the right direction. They’re just not heading at the pace that we want them to go. But they’re beating low expectations.”

January is typically one of the strongest months of the year for stocks. In 60 of the past 83 years, the S&P 500 closed the year in the same direction as it finished the month of January, according to S&P Indices.

European markets were broadly higher, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 1.6%, on the back of encouraging economic data.

The number of jobless in Germany, reported Tuesday, dropped by a more-than-expected 22,000 in December for an unemployment rate of 6.8%. On Monday, European markets rallied after data showing that manufacturing activity in December contracted at a slower rate in both the euro zone and Germany. Gains were held in check, however, on Spain’s warning on Monday over the size of its deficit.

Asian bourses also climbed, after data over the weekend showed that manufacturing activity in China returned to expansion in December, after contracting in November. Markets remained closed in Shanghai and Japan, but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 2.4% and South Korea’s Kospi Composite ran up 2.7%.

In corporate news, Chesapeake Energy advanced 1.31, or 5.9%, to 23.60, after the company said it sold a minority stake in its Ohio shale discovery to a subsidiary of France’s Total for $2.32 billion.

3M agreed to acquire Avery Dennison’s office and consumer-products business for $550 million, increasing the diversified manufacturer’s presence in the sector. Shares rose 1.76, or 2.2%, to 83.49.

Caterpillar locked out about 450 union workers at a locomotive plant in Canada starting late Sunday. The Dow component’s stock gained 3.38, or 3.7%, to 93.98.

MGIC Investment said it contributed $200 million to increase the statutory capital of its principal insurance operation, Mortgage Guaranty Insurance, to allow MGIC to meet capital requirements in Wisconsin. MGIC’s capital is expected to diminish in 2012. Shares fell 14 cents, or 3.8%, to 3.59%.

Watsco raised its quarterly dividend 9%, to 62 cents a share. The stock gained 56 cents, or 0.9%, to 66.22.

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NEW YORK—The three main U.S. stock indexes offered something for bulls, bears and the indifferent this past year: the Dow was up, the S&P was flat and the Nasdaq was down.

And the ride from the beginning of the year through Friday was volatile and filled with uncertainties and the unexpected.

It came down to the wire, but in the final minute of 2011 trading, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index closed the year virtually unchanged from where it closed in 2010. The S&P 500 closed Friday down 5.42 points, or 0.43%, to 1257.60. The full-year decline of 0.04 point, or 0.0028%, was the smallest annual move since at least 1947, according to preliminary S&P calculations. S&P Indices scrambled after the close of trading to determine an extra decimal place in the 1947 data to figure out which was the slimmer move of the two years.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared better in 2011. The Dow finished down 69.48 points, or 0.57%, to 12217.56 on Friday, but closed the year up 5.53%. The blue-chip index closed the fourth quarter up 12%, its biggest quarterly percentage jump since 2003.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 8.59 points, or 0.3%, to 2605.15, and closed the year down 1.8%.

The year was defined by fits and starts related to Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis and global economic growth concerns, prompting investors to flock to defensive and dividend-paying stocks.

But Friday’s moves were slim, as a dearth of news and low trading volume gave investors little incentive to take a stand ahead of the long New Year-holiday weekend.

“Investors are looking to take a big relaxing breath and finish what’s been a pretty challenging year,” said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist with RidgeWorth Investments. “Today is just a day to finish rebalancing portfolios and recognize that the score gets reset back to zero come Tuesday.”

Utilities, consumer staples and health care finished 2011 as the S&P 500′s top performing sectors, with all three gaining more than 10%. Financial and material stocks notched the biggest declines.

Within the Dow, McDonald’s was the top gainer in 2011, rising 31% for the year. Bank of America was the biggest loser, falling 58% in 2011.

The “Santa Claus Rally” remained intact on Friday, but just barely. The S&P 500 has gained 0.3% from the Dec. 22 close. The last five days and first two of the new year have been good for an average 1.5% gain in the S&P 500 since 1950, according to the Stock Traders’ Almanac, as investors ready their portfolios for a new year.

Those periods when Santa failed to show have often been painful for the stock market in the coming year. The index lost 2.5% over the seven days bridging 2007 and 2008, a period when the financial crisis was taking shape.

The major stock indexes in 2011 significantly underperformed U.S. Treasury bonds. The biggest star was the 30-year Treasury bond, which registered a 35% return, while the benchmark 10-year note gained 17%, with the yield finishing below 2% for the first time since at least 1977.

“My wish list for 2012 is for the money that continues to gravitate to the safety of the U.S. Treasury market to get a little more nerve and come back into equities,” said Benedict Willis III, director of floor operations for investment-banking boutique Sunrise Securities. “That will be important for equities to continue the recent upward move.”

Treasury bonds have handed investors a return of 9.66% through Thursday on the back of 5.87% gain in 2010, according to data from Barclays.

“Treasury yields are back at panic levels,” said Michael Gayed, chief investment strategist at Pension Partners. “The bond market is sensing something very serious is coming in 2012, yet stock investors not so much. The answer of who is right, the bond market or the stock market, probably gets answered in the next three months and a trend will assert itself.”

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NEW YORK—U.S. stock futures crept higher, as a successful auction of Italian debt gave investors something positive to trade on in an otherwise quiet session for news.

About 90 minutes before the opening bell, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures had tacked on 22 points, or 0.2%, to 12241. The Dow slipped 3 points on Tuesday, the first decline in five sessions, while the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index and Nasdaq Composite eked out gains.

Wednesday, S&P 500 futures gained 3 points, or 0.2%, to 1263 and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 6 points, or 0.3%, to 2290. Changes in stock futures don’t always accurately predict stock moves after the opening bell.

NYSE Composite volume of 2.03 billion shares on Tuesday was the second-lowest of the year. Activity is expected to remain light during the holiday-shortened week.

European markets reversed earlier losses to trade broadly higher as a successful auction of Italian Treasury bills helped lift investor spirits. The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.5%, after being down 0.5% at its intraday low.

Demand for Italian six-month bills increased from the previous auction, and the average yield of 3.251% was half of the 6.504% average, a euro-era high, paid a month earlier for the same maturity.

Stocks had declined earlier as the use of the European Central bank’s overnight deposit facility reached a second-straight record raised worries that banks would rather park cash there rather than lend it to other banks.

Asian bourses were mostly lower. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average slipping 0.2%, but China’s Shanghai Composite edged up 0.2% to halt a three-session slide that taken the index to the lowest close since March 2009.

Gold futures shed 0.5% to $1,587.20 an ounce, while crude oil futures lost 0.6% to $100.78 a barrel. The U.S. dollar eased slightly against the euro and the yen.

The economic calendar is light, with the Johnson Redbook retail sales index for the holiday shopping period scheduled for release at 8:55 a.m. EST.

In corporate news, shares of Cavium slumped 6% in premarket trading after the semiconductor products maker lowered its revenue and gross margin outlook for the fourth quarter.

New York Times said it agreed to sell the 16 local newspapers that comprise its regional media group for $143 million in cash to Halifax Media Holdings. The stock was still inactive ahead of the open.

Medicis Pharmaceutical raised its earnings outlook for the fourth quarter late Tuesday, but lowered its revenue estimate, citing progress made in reducing the its exposure to certain managed care restrictions. The stock was still inactive in the premarket, but had declined nearly 4% in Tuesday’s after-hours session.

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U.S. stocks rose ahead of the holiday weekend, pushing the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index back into positive territory for 2011, as investors cheered a break in the latest Congressional deadlock.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 44 points, or 0.4%, to 12214 in morning trade. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index rose four points, or 0.4%, to 1258 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced five points, or 0.2%, to 2605.

Investors were encouraged by a break in the latest Congressional deadlock, after lawmakers in the House of Representatives and the Senate voted to temporarily extend a payroll tax cut by two months and agreed to begin negotiations on a yearlong extension.

Stock-market bulls are looking to extend a three-day gain that has added 403 points, or 3.4%, to the Dow. Volumes are expected to remain very light ahead of the three-day Christmas weekend.

With the gains, the S&P 500 pushed back into positive territory for 2011. With just four full sessions remaining after today’s closing bell, the broad market measure could join the Dow in the green for the year, potentially frustrating fund managers who have lagged the market.

“That’s going to be psychologically important, because only 23% of fund managers are outperforming the market,” said Todd Salamone, senior vice-president of research at Schaeffer’s Investment Research. “We are right below that breakeven line, and many fund managers are underweight and are not participating in a year-end rally… It would be a real black eye to be underperforming and negative while the index is higher for the year.”

Leading the gains were telecommunications and utilities stocks. Disney gained 1.4% to lead the Dow components, while AT&T rose 1% and Verizon Communications advanced 1.1%.

European markets were broadly higher Friday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.8% to extend its weekly gain to 3.4%. The U.K. market has already closed for a four-day break. The positive tone set by recent strong U.S. data and the Italian Senate’s backing of Prime Minister Mario Monti’s austerity package on Thursday helped buoy sentiment.

Asian bourses also rallied, with China’s Shanghai Composite gaining 0.9% to post its first gain in five sessions and South Korea’s Kospi climbing 1.1%.

Gold futures slipped to below $1,610 an ounce, while crude oil futures edged higher to just short of $100 a barrel. The U.S. dollar rose against the euro and lost ground to the yen.

In economic news, a raft of economic data showed U.S. consumers spending a bit more amid small income gains and low prices.

Durable goods orders jumped 3.8% in November, topping expectations, but a key barometer of the report—new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft—dropped 1.2% for a second straight decline.

Personal consumption expenditures and U.S. incomes each grew by 0.1% in November, beating expectations for 0.2% increases. Core personal consumption expenditure prices ticked up 0.1%, in line with expectations. New home sales totaled 315,000 in November, in line with expectations.

In corporate news, shares of Rambus soared 14% after the semiconductor technology company announced a five-year patent license agreement with Broadcom. Broadcom edged down 0.1%.

United Continental fell 8.3% after the airline operator said domestic bookings are up 3.7% from the same period a year ago and international bookings were flat.

Eastman Kodak surged 12% after the company named General Counsel Laura Quatela to serve as president, effective Jan. 1, alongside current president Philip Faraci.

Elsewhere, Christopher & Banks rose 1.3% after posting a narrower-than-expected fiscal third-quarter loss and revenue that rose above estimates.

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U.S. stocks battled back from intraday losses Wednesday to add to the previous day’s powerful gains as investors scrutinized a new European lending facility for euro-zone banks and shrugged off some earnings disappointments.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 4.16 points, or 0.03%, to 12107.74, erasing a decline of as many as 104 points in the early afternoon. The advance gives the blue-chip index its second straight gain, keeping the Dow in positive territory for the week, month and year.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index edged up 2.42 points, or 0.19%, to 1243.72. Only the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell, losing 25.76 points, or 0.99%, to 2577.97.

Technology stocks were the only sector to fall Wednesday, with broad-based declines following disappointing earnings from database giant Oracle. International Business Machines lost 3.1%, Cisco Systems fell 2.6% and Hewlett-Packard shed 1.8%.

Pulling on the upside were gains among the so-called “defensive” sectors, as investors sought safety in utilities, consumer-staples and health-care companies. Coca-Cola rose 1.7%, Kraft Foods added 1.2% and Pfizer gained 1%. Energy stocks were also robust, bolstered by strong oil prices. Exxon Mobil and Chevron added 1.4% and 1.7%, respectively.

The moves came on a day when the European Central Bank’s longer-term refinancing operation allotted a bigger-than-expected €489.19 billion ($639.96 billion) in three-year loans to 523 euro-zone banks in the first of two refinancing operations.

The greater-than-expected demand for liquidity among banks raised some eyebrows and helped push European markets lower. The broad Stoxx Europe 600, which had gained as much as 1.4% in intraday trading, finished down 0.5%. Germany’s DAX declined 1%.

“We’re still papering over the real problem,” said Kim Caughey Forrest, a portfolio manager at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh. “The fact is that this is not great for growth. It’s simply avoiding calamity.”

Gold futures slipped 0.2% to $1,611.90 an ounce, while crude oil futures rose for a third straight day to $98.67 a barrel, supported by a fall in crude-oil inventories. The U.S. dollar rose against the euro and the yen.

The economic calendar was light, with the sole report showing that existing-home sales rose 4.0% in November from the month before.

In corporate news, shares of Oracle plummeted 12% after the database giant reported fiscal second-quarter earnings and revenue that fell short of expectations, overshadowing a $5 billion increase to its share repurchase program.

Yahoo surged 5.8%, with all the gains coming in the final half hour of trading, after reports that the Internet pioneer was discussing plans to cut its stake in Chinese website Alibaba to 15%.

Bank of America also moved higher in the final hour of trading, rising 1.2% after the lender came to an agreement involving minority borrowers who were charged higher fees on prime or subprime loans.

Delphi Financial Group soared 73% after Japan’s Tokio Marine Holdings agreed to buy the insurance company for $2.66 billion.

Nike tacked on 2.9% as the athletic-apparel maker’s better-than-forecast fiscal second-quarter results helped offset declining margins as a result of rising product costs.

Walgreen declined 0.4% after the retail chain missed first-quarter earnings forecasts, saying a delay in the cold and flu season impacted results.

CarMax declined 5.5% after the used car retailer reported worse-than-expected earnings and a decline in comparable-store sales.

KB Home fell 6.7% after the home builder’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings tumbled 20% as weakness in the housing market masked the builder’s revenue growth.

Expedia rose 3.9% after the company officially spun off online travel research firm TripAdvisor. TripAdvisor fell 8.5%.

Research In Motion gained 10%, following reports that several suitors, including Microsoft, Nokia and Amazon.com, mulled over the idea of making a bid for the BlackBerry maker.

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Stocks fell Monday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi made cautious comments on the state of Europe’s economy and as bank stocks sagged in expectation of tighter capital standards.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 34 points, or 0.3%, to 11833 in afternoon trading, after posting a slim advance early in the day. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index shed six points, or 0.5%, to 1213, and the Nasdaq Composite lost nine points, or 0.4%, to 2546.

Trading volume was light as many investors were closing their books for the year. Just less than 1.7 billion shares had changed hands in New York Stock Exchange composite volume as of 1 p.m. Eastern time. Average daily volume this year has been about 4.3 billion shares.

Stocks lost their morning rally after the ECB’s Mr. Draghi said the region’s economic outlook was subject to “high uncertainty” and that substantial risks remained. He added that the ECB was trying “to do its best” to avoid a credit crunch stemming from the lack of funding banks are facing in the euro zone.

Meanwhile, bank stocks were the weakest performers after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Federal Reserve is set to embrace rules by regulators in Basel, Switzerland, requiring major financial institutions to hold extra capital. J.P. Morgan Chase lost 3.2%, and Bank of America shed 3.1% to lead the blue-chip Dow’s decliners.

“There’s a tremendous amount of uncertainty and fear,” said Stephen Hammers, portfolio manager of the Compass EMP Alternative Strategies fund. “Fear has taken over, and it’s increased market volatility. Sovereign governments have gotten themselves into way too much trouble.”

European markets finished mixed. The Stoxx Europe 600 finished up by less than 0.1%. Germany’s DAX lost 0.5%, but France’s CAC 40 clung to a gain of 0.1%.

Last week, the blue-chip Dow shed 318 points, or 2.6%, after credit-rating firms took a negative view of Europe’s most recent crisis-contagion efforts and the U.S. Federal Reserve refrained from announcing significant new measures to bolster financial markets.

“Markets have lost confidence in the policy makers. They need to do something big to regain confidence,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management. “If they can find a definitive agreement to lend the IMF €200 billion (about $260 billion), that could at least make people a little less skeptical as to their ability to handle their problems.”

Caterpillar was one of Monday’s strongest blue-chip stocks, rising 0.7% after the machinery company reported sales of construction and mining machinery rose 30% in the three months to the end of November, higlighted by strong growth in North America.

Asian exchanges sank amid fears of political instability following the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, with South Korea’s Kospi Composite shedding 3.4% and Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average losing 1.3%.

“It’s interesting to look at the red coming out of Asia and then see green in Europe and the U.S. The Asian markets saw what I consider a justifiable reaction to a destabilizing event,” said John De Clue, senior vice president at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “As difficult a country as it is, a strong North Korea is better than a weak one, because a weak one implies uncertainty of perhaps extreme proportions.”

Gold futures were down 0.1% at $1,596 an ounce, while crude-oil futures rose 0.4% to $93.94 a barrel. The dollar edged higher against the euro and the yen.

The economic calendar was light. A reading on home builder confidence in December rose to 21 from a downwardly revised 19 last month, reaching the highest level since May 2010.

In corporate news, AT&T’s talks on asset sales to help win regulatory approval for its acquisition of T-Mobile USA have cooled, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal, meaning AT&T may have to abandon the $39 billion deal. AT&T shares lost 0.2%.

Winn-Dixie Stores surged 71%. Grocery-store operator BI-LO agreed to take the grocery chain private in a deal valuing the company at about $560 million.

Social-gaming company Zynga’s stock fell 4.8% after closing down 5% in its first day of trading. The declines were viewed as a sign the appetite for new issues of high-growth technology companies could be waning.

Saudi Arabia’s Prince Alwaleed bin Talal made a $300 million investment in Twitter, or about 3.6% of analysts’ October valuation of the unlisted social-media site at $8.4 billion.

Alexza Pharmaceuticals gained 7.6%. The drug company said it had retained adviser Lazard to help it explore strategic options after handing all of its employees 60-day layoff notices to conserve cash.

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Small-capitalization stocks are rallying—and investors might want to pay attention.

As a category, small stocks, defined as companies with market values of less than about $3 billion, were the stars of 2010, with the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks beating the large-cap Russell 1000 index by more than 10 percentage points.

This year has been a different story, as fears of a euro-zone breakup, a U.S. recession and a Chinese bust sent investors scurrying into less-risky fare. The Russell 2000 lost 17% through Sept. 30, 7.8 points more than the Russell 1000.

But since the end of September, small caps have been the place to be, surging by 11.5%—3.5 points more than large caps.

The outperformance has been spurred, in part, by progress in Europe, which boosted returns for all risky assets in recent weeks. But it also has been helped along by a string of better-than-expected U.S. economic data. As the data improved, so did the performance of small caps, which are particularly sensitive to changes in the economic outlook because they have fewer foreign profits and less diversified revenue streams.

And the U.S. economy seems poised to expand at a faster pace than many thought possible just a few months ago. On Dec. 9, Macroeconomic Advisers raised its estimates for U.S. gross-domestic-product growth to 3.7%, from 3.5%, while Goldman Sachs Group recently raised its forecast to 3.4% from 2.5%.

History, too, suggests that small caps may have more room to run. Since 1929, small caps have outperformed the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index by 47.1 percentage points, on average, during a bull market, according to Ned Davis Research, which upgraded small caps to overweight last month.

If the slump that began on April 29 has in fact ended, then small caps should lead the rally, says Neil Leeson, an exchange-traded-fund strategist at Ned Davis.

“We’re seeing evidence of a bull market,” he says. “Small caps will take off first, and that’s what we’re waiting for.”

Past results don’t predict future ones, of course. But some strategists say there is a more fundamental case for an extended small-cap rally. While the profit margins at large companies have reached record levels—increasing anxiety that cost cutting won’t help boost future earnings—small-company profit margins are still below their precrisis levels, according to Chip Miller, a small-cap strategist at UBS. Small caps, meanwhile, beat earnings expectations by 6.5% during the third quarter, Mr. Miller says, compared with 3.5% for large caps.

“There are still significant margin-expansion opportunities,” Mr. Miller says. “We think earnings results will be stronger for the next one to two quarters.”

Be warned: Another market selloff would hit small caps particularly hard. That is because they have higher “betas,” a market term for volatility relative to an index. While that has helped boost small-cap returns recently, it makes them particularly sensitive to bad news. For instance, the Russell 2000 dropped 3.1% on Dec. 8 after European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi indicated he wouldn’t begin large-scale bond purchases to bail out the euro zone’s most indebted nations. The S&P 500 fell 2.1%.

“It will be hard to shake the macro influence,” says Scott Chronert, a small-cap strategist at Citigroup. “All these concerns will continue to create headwinds for small caps.”

Small caps also look pricey, despite having trailed large caps this year: A valuation measure known as expected returns, which forecasts a company’s share-price performance based on cash-flow estimates, shows small caps outperforming large caps by half a percentage point annually during the next 10 years. That is below the long-term average of 1.2 points, and not enough to cover the additional cost associated with trading small caps, says Mark Keleher, chief executive of BNY Mellon Beta Management.

There are ways for investors to have their small caps and reduce some of the risk. One way is to focus on higher-quality companies. For instance, the S&P Small Cap 600 requires four consecutive quarters of profitability to make the index, while the Russell 2000 simply screens for size. That focus on profitable companies has paid off for investors in 2011: The S&P 600 has lost 2.6% this year, 4.9 points less than the Russell 2000′s 7.5% decline.

“The higher-quality names in small caps have worked this year,” says Glenn Gawronski, manager of the JPMorgan Small Cap Equity fund, which has gained 0.2% this year. “The market isn’t buying the riskier stocks.”

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Buried deep in the 849 pages of last year’s Dodd-Frank financial-overhaul law is a provision that has begun turning financial regulators into a human-rights police force. It also gives investors something new to worry about.

Alarmed by atrocities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Congress ordered the Securities and Exchange Commission to require companies to disclose whether raw materials essential to their products include minerals from Congo or neighboring nations.

The financial law thus puts a handful of harried securities lawyers at the SEC into an unprecedented and unlikely role: figuring out how publicly traded companies should demonstrate whether they have scrubbed their global supply chains of any taint of human-rights violations in Central Africa.

The minerals in question—cassiterite, columbite-tantalite, gold and wolframite—are widely used in consumer electronics and other products, although Congo supplies no more than 20% of global demand for these raw materials.

For years, however, the revenues from Congolese mines have financed warring factions that engage in kidnapping, child labor, rape, mutilation and murder. By compelling companies to disclose to the investing public whether they use any of these “conflict minerals,” Congress hoped to stop the flow of money to abusers of human rights.

The SEC reckons that 1,200 companies may have to file the new disclosures; other estimates range up to five times higher.

People familiar with the matter say that the conflict-minerals rule has led to more meetings between outside interested parties and the SEC staff than any other issue in years—partly because the area is so far outside the agency’s expertise, partly because it arouses such intense passions.

The SEC has been wrestling with the conflict-mineral rules for months, and there isn’t any word on when the final regulations will be released. But companies already are warning that they will have to make the disclosures—and that the regulations could constrict supply, raise costs and even drive away customers.

So far this year, 42 U.S. companies—14 in November alone—have mentioned the pending conflict-mineral rules in their financial statements, up from just two in all of 2010. Their stock prices didn’t seem to react to the disclosures.

Most of these companies make or distribute semiconductors, cellphones or other electronics equipment. But they also include a chemical producer, a solar-energy concern and Helen of Troy, which makes hair dryers, foot baths, kitchen mitts and electronic mosquito traps.

Buddy Barnes, chief financial officer of RF Monolithics, a Dallas-based maker of wireless equipment, says “we shouldn’t be funding renegades who misuse their resources and abuse their people.” His company relies on all four minerals, although RFM doesn’t always know where they were mined.

Mr. Barnes estimates that it would cost RFM $1 million to conduct its own audit of the mineral suppliers used by its contract manufacturers. RFM, which has a minuscule stock-market value of $11 million, had net income of $228,000 in its latest fiscal year and $312,000 the year before.

“For us, it’s the difference between being profitable and not,” says Mr. Barnes, who is hoping that larger companies will set up a system of verifying “conflict-free” suppliers that firms like his could piggyback on.

Marcia Narine, a visiting law professor at the University of Missouri–Kansas City, spent a week and a half in Congo in September. She worries that thoroughly investigating how minerals are produced there may not yet be practical.

Prof. Narine tells the story of a 63-year-old woman who reported to the authorities that she had been raped by militants—who then came back and cut off her lips as punishment. With some penalties for telling the truth, asks Prof. Narine, “How can we be sure the information we’re getting is accurate?”

That also is a concern for “socially responsible” funds, those portfolios that invest only in companies that pass specific environmental and social tests. The chaos in the Congo region makes the traffic in minerals so hard to trace that screening out a misbehaving company from a portfolio isn’t yet feasible.

Bennett Freeman, a senior vice president at Calvert Investments, says that it is “virtually impossible” at this point to prove that a company’s products don’t contain conflict minerals, but he is optimistic that the new rule will change that over the next few years.

In the meantime, more such requirements are possible. “In a shrinking world,” says Tamar Frankel, an expert on securities law at Boston University, “investments and political issues may be so closely related that they cannot be separated anymore.”

Considering that interventions by other means have so often failed, financial disclosures—whether they work or not—may become the next weapon for combating crimes against humanity.

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NEW YORK—U.S. stocks advanced in early trading after investors took heart from the fewest new weekly claims for unemployment benefits since May 2008.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 112 points, or 1%, to 11936. The gains follow a 131-point drop on Wednesday that stretched the measure’s decline for the week to 361 points, or 3%.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index tacked on 12 points, or 1%, to 1223, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 22 points, or 1%, to 2261.

A seasonally adjusted 366,000 workers filed initial jobless claims in the week ended Dec. 10, the Labor Department said. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast claims would climb by 9,000 to 390,000. The figures were the latest indication that the weak jobs market is slowly building strength.

In addition, the four-week moving average of new jobless claims, closely watched by economists because it smooths out volatile weekly data, dropped last week to 387,750, which is the lowest level since July 2008.

“The data we got this morning threw some fuel onto the fire, in a positive way,” said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital Group. “It makes our economic story look more stable than it has in the recent past. It also makes our economy look significantly more attractive than our counterparts around the world.”

European markets were broadly higher, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 1.3%. Manufacturing activity in the euro zone contracted at a slower pace than expected in December, while Germany’s preliminary December figures rose versus the previous month.

A successful Spanish bond auction also lifted investor spirits. The average yields on April 2020 and April 2021 bonds rose slightly from the previous auction, but the average yield on the January 2016 bond dropped by 1.25 percentage points to 4.023%.

The euro gained ground against the dollar, to trade slightly above $1.30 one day after hitting the lowest level in nearly a year.

Asian bourses fell, however, with China’s Shanghai Composite shedding 2.1% to its lowest close since March 2009. Data showed that China manufacturing activity contracted again in December, although at a slower rate than in November.

Gold futures added 0.3% to $1,591 a troy ounce after plunging on Wednesday, while crude oil futures gained 0.5% to $95.44 a barrel.

A slew of other U.S. economic data greeted investors. U.S. wholesale prices rose slightly in November amid higher food costs, but the underlying rate of increase in producer prices remained tame, indicating little inflation pressure, while the U.S. current account deficit narrowed in the third quarter.

U.S. industrial production fell for the first time in seven months during November, an unexpected drop caused by declining output of cars, electronics, clothing, and other products.

A reading on Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity in December is still ahead at 10 a.m.

In corporate news, FedEx climbed 3.9% trading after the package delivery service reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations and affirmed its full-year outlook.

Shares of Novellus Systems rallied 20% after the company agreed to be acquired by fellow chip equipment maker Lam Research in an all-stock deal that values Novellus at around $3.3 billion. Lam shares slipped 4.4%.

International Business Machines Corp. gained 0.8%. Big Blue agreed to acquire Emptoris Inc., as the tech giant continues to place an emphasis on Web-based software company purchases.

Elsewhere, SonoSite leapt 27% after the medical-equipment maker said it entered into an agreement to be purchased by Fujifilm Holdings for $995 million.

BioSante Pharmaceuticals tumbled 76% after the company said results from efficacy trials of its testosterone gel failed to meet the co-primary and secondary endpoints.

Write to Brendan Conway at brendan.conway@dowjones.com

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Stocks sank for a third straight day as investors confronted a drop in the euro and steep declines in commodity prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up 131.46 points, or 1.10%, to finish at 11823.48, a two-week low. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index lost 13.91 points, or 1.13%, to 1211.82 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 39.96 points, or 1.55%, to 2539.31.

Leading the declines were energy stocks, as commodity prices fell steeply. Caterpillar fell 4.4% to lead the Dow decliners, while Chevron gave up 3% and Exxon Mobil fell 1.4%. Technology stocks were also weak, with Hewlett-Packard and Cisco Systems dropping 1.6% and 2.7%, respectively.

European markets finished at the day’s lows, as sentiment toward Europe’s common currency soured after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Tuesday she that opposed raising the lending limit for the euro-zone bailout fund.

The Stoxx Europe 600 lost 2.1%, and France’s CAC 40 index dropped 3.3% for its worst one-day decline in six weeks. The euro also fell below $1.30 for the first time since January, trading recently at $1.2981. The currency has fallen more than 3% this week.

“People have lost faith in Europe,” said Mike Boyle, portfolio manager at Advisors Asset Management. “Clearly, the driving force is Europe. The issue is that everyone wants a cure today, and they need time to come to a decent conclusion.”

Separately, Italy sold the maximum targeted amount of five-year bonds, but was forced to pay a euro-era high average yield of 6.47% to do so, above the 6.29% paid at the previous auction last month. The country’s 10-year bond yield rose back above the key 7% level, to 7.169%. Spain, Italy and France all saw their government bond yields widen over German bunds.

In the U.S., the dollar’s strong rise against most of its major counterparts put pressure on commodity prices, many of which are priced in dollars. It has also worried some money managers who had taken encouragement from a recent string of strong economic numbers in the U.S.

“A rising dollar is going to be problematic for us,” said Jennifer Ellison, principal at Bingham, Osborn & Scarborough in San Francisco, who expects the dollar’s strength to continue climbing against the beleaguered euro.

“It just puts pressure on the little bits of good news that we’ve had domestically,” Ms. Ellison said. “We’re very worried about that.”

In Asia, the Shanghai Composite gave up 0.9% to close at its lowest level since March 2009.

Gold futures tumbled 4.6% to settle at $1,584.30 an ounce. That decline, the biggest one-day drop in nearly three months, extended gold’s December loss to 9.2% and sent the precious metal to a five-month low. Crude-oil futures slumped 5.2% to $94.95 a barrel. Copper dropped 4.7%, while silver tumbled 7.4%. Yields on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.903%, after an auction of 30-year bonds sold at a record low yield of 2.925%.

Data on import and export prices in November showed relatively muted signs of inflation, with import prices ticking up 0.7%, a touch lower than expectations for a 1.1% gain.

In corporate news, shares of Avon Products rallied 5.1% to top the S&P 500 gainers list after the beauty products company said Andrea Jung, currently chairman and chief executive, will relinquish her role as CEO when a successor is found.

On the downside, First Solar tumbled 21% after the solar-panel maker cut its outlook for the year, citing continued delays in certain projects in its systems business. The company also provided a disappointing 2012 outlook.

Cheniere Energy slumped 10% after the energy company said it would offer 33 million shares of common stock for sale to the public.

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